November 8, 2013 / 9:00 PM – The latest ballot drop by King County elections has increased the likelihood that not only will Kshama Sawant defeat incumbent Richard Conlin in the race for Seattle City Council Position 2, but her margin of victory may be enough to avoid any recount!
The new numbers include Sawant gaining 58.45 percent of the newest ballot drop, bringing the overall total to 74,933 (49.49 percent) for Sawant and 76,170 (50.31 percent) for Conlin. After trailing by 6,136 votes on Election Night, Sawant has now cut Conlin's lead to only 1,237 votes - only a fifth of his original lead, with at least 30,000 votes left to count.
To win with 30,000 ballots to go, Sawant would need only 52.06 percent of those votes. In each of the last four ballot releases, Sawant has led by more than that margin. In each of the last three, her percentage has topped 55 percent.
King County Elections has now released six tallies of ballots in four days. The trend remains unmistakeable:
|Election Night (Tues. 11-5)||38,116 46.13%||44,252 53.56%|
|Day Two Afternoon (11-6)||7,862 49.69%||7,949 50.24%|
|Day Two Evening (11-6)||3,385 50.21%||3,342 49.57%|
|Day Three Afternoon (11-7)||6,950 52.79%||6,174 46.90%|
|Day Three Evening (11-7)||5,747 55.92%||4,528 44.07%|
|Day Four Afternoon (11-8)||7,852 55.29%||6,338 44.63%|
|Day Four Evening (11-8)||5,021 58.45%||3,567 41.52%|
|Total||74,933 49.49%||76,170 50.31%|
In close elections, a machine recount is triggered when candidates finish within half a percentage point and 2,000 votes of each other. King County Elections must do a manual recount if they're within 150 votes and a quarter of a percentage point.
To avoid a recount, with the assumption of 30,000 ballots left, the Sawant campaign must win 52.23 percent to win by more than a half percentage point, and 55.40 percent to win by more than 2,000 votes - both well within range given current trends. However, starting next week, counted ballots will include more challenged ballots cast earlier in the election period. This weekend, the Sawant campaign is holding volunteer and staff trainings to mobilize its large base of active supporters to help track down and verify challenged ballots, as a way to maximize the chances that the Sawant campaign can win the Position 2 race outright, without need for a recount. Read more about these trainings here, and please join us Saturday and/or Sunday at 11am at our Campaign Headquarters (1265 Main Street, Suite 205).
With the holiday weekend, King County Elections will release no further tallies until Tuesday afternoon, November 12, at 4:30 PM.
"The tremendous surge of enthusiasm for our campaign in its final weeks is being reflected in these results," Sawant said this afternoon. "This is what democracy looks like."
PS. All supporters should use the King County Ballot Tracker to ensure that your ballot has been counted without issue. It will save our Voter Protection Squad a trip to your house!